AI software progress

Not all AI progress comes from throwing more and better hardware at the problem. Improvements to algorithms, data quality and training techniques can dramatically increase what AI systems are capable of, enabling models to reach the same capabilities with less computation. Epoch tracks these compute efficiency gains, often called algorithmic progress, over time, examining how quickly they are occurring, what is driving them, and what they mean for the pace of future AI progress.

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Will parallelization limits delay an intelligence explosion?
Report
Jul. 29, 2026
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Will parallelization limits delay an intelligence explosion?

Even with automated AI R&D producing millions of virtual researchers, progress may be capped by our ability to divide, coordinate, and recombine their work. Epoch AI on why parallelization technology is a missing parameter in intelligence explosion models.

By Phil Trammell

Contributions to OpenAI's Codex codebase show signs of AI uplift
Data Insight
Jul. 7, 2026
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Contributions to OpenAI's Codex codebase show signs of AI uplift

The share of working days on which OpenAI's Codex collaborators merged very-high-effort code rose from about 2% in Q2 2025 to about 8% in Q2 2026.

By Jaeho Lee and Thomas Kwa

Keeping up with the GPTs
Newsletter
Apr. 7, 2026
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Keeping up with the GPTs

Can Chinese and open model companies compete with the frontier through e.g. distillation and talent?

By Anson Ho

The least understood driver of AI progress
Newsletter
Feb. 25, 2026
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The least understood driver of AI progress

An opinionated guide to “algorithmic progress” and why it matters

By Anson Ho

An FAQ on Reinforcement Learning Environments
Newsletter
Jan. 12, 2026
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An FAQ on Reinforcement Learning Environments

We interviewed 18 people across RL environment startups, neolabs, and frontier labs about the state of the field and where it's headed.

By Jean-Stanislas Denain and Chris Barber

The software intelligence explosion debate needs experiments
Newsletter
Nov. 14, 2025
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The software intelligence explosion debate needs experiments

The existing debate rests on data and assumptions that are shakier than most people realize. To make progress, we need better evidence, and experiments are the best way to get it on the margin.

By Anson Ho and Parker Whitfill

Why GPT-5 used less training compute than GPT-4.5 (but GPT-6 probably won’t)
Newsletter
Sep. 26, 2025
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Why GPT-5 used less training compute than GPT-4.5 (but GPT-6 probably won’t)

OpenAI focused on scaling post-training on a smaller model

By Yafah Edelman, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Jaime Sevilla, and Anson Ho

Why future AI agents will be trained to work together
Newsletter
Aug. 22, 2025
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Why future AI agents will be trained to work together

Many multi-agent setups are based on fancy prompts, but this is unlikely to persist

By Anson Ho and Jean-Stanislas Denain

Quantifying the algorithmic improvement from reasoning models
Newsletter
Aug. 2, 2025
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Quantifying the algorithmic improvement from reasoning models

Reasoning models were as big of an improvement as the Transformer, at least on some benchmarks

By Anson Ho and Arden Berg

How fast can algorithms advance capabilities?
Newsletter
May 16, 2025
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How fast can algorithms advance capabilities?

This week's issue is a guest post by Henry Josephson, who is a research manager at UChicago's XLab and an AI governance intern at Google DeepMind.

By Henry Josephson